Have a look at the link below.
I'm not sure I've worked out the answer!
What do you all think...
http://flowingdata.com/2011/10/28/best-statistics-question-ever/
I'm not sure I've worked out the answer!
What do you all think...
http://flowingdata.com/2011/10/28/best-statistics-question-ever/
Ok multiple choice assumes that one of the choices is correct. That is a truism for all multiple choice. If the answer is related to the percentage that features twice then the answer is 2 of the choices out of four. O.50 probability to be precise if the answer is any of the other single answers you Can only be right in 1 in four choices, hence the answer to this is 0.25. So that is the answer it depends on the answer !
ReplyDeleteI agree that there is an assumption that the correct answer is one of the answers shown.
ReplyDeleteIn my mind there is a circular argument that David's solution does not address.
If the correct answer is 25% then there is a 50% chance of correctly guessing, but if so then 25% is not the correct answer.
I remain unconvinced...
Mr Smy, thank you. To finish on your comments, I think the answer is counterintuitive, that the paradox circular argument is an illusion.It is created, when you think of the answer to the question posed instead of the answer to the question posed ! So to dispel this paradox as it is just an illusion you can restate it. .. think of the answer to the question posed (by you -probability) instead of the answer to the question posed (a,b,c,d) then I am most sure that my answer is correct.
ReplyDeleteI would like to submit a question for you to consider? I am told that Bayesian Probabilty theory might be right up your street. Its a simple enough question